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Abu Dhabi GP: Permutations for McLaren and Ferrari as they bid to win Constructors' Championship at final race of 2024 F1 season
4 December 2024, 09:34 | Updated: 5 December 2024, 10:00
The F1 Constructors' Championship will be decided at the season-ending Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, with McLaren and Ferrari looking to end their long wait for title success.
It looked like Red Bull would romp away to a third consecutive championship early in the season but an astonishing dip in form has paved the way for their rivals.
McLaren appear to have taken advantage as they lead Ferrari by 21 points going into the last race of 2024.
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McLaren last won the Constructors' Championship in 1998, while Ferrari's last title came in 2008.
Sky Sports F1 looks at the permutations ahead of Sunday's race at the Yas Marina Circuit at 1pm.
Why is the Constructors' Championship so important?
It is not romantic, but the main answer is: money. While the Drivers' Championship carries more prestige, the Constructors' Championship is what dictates the distribution of Formula 1's considerable prize pot.
The pot is 50 per cent of Formula 1's commercial rights revenue for each season, so the reported profit of $3.2bn (£2.3bn) for 2023 would have resulted in an estimated fund of $1.6bn (£1.2bn).
After some bonuses are taken out of that, such as Ferrari's five per cent to recognise their contribution to the sport's global popularity, the remaining amount is split between all 10 teams, with the champions receiving an estimated 14 per cent, and the team that comes last claiming six per cent.
Therefore in 2023, winners Red Bull would have earned an estimated $140m (£106m), with each team below them gradually receiving less.
The difference between each position in 2023 was an estimated £7m, which goes some way to explaining why the battles for midfield and the final positions are just as fiercely contested as those at the front.
The final Constructors' Championship positions also affect the amount of wind-tunnel time for the following season.
F1's handicap system actually means if you win the title, you receive the least amount of wind-tunnel time, with more time allowed the further you go down the standings down to 10th place.
*if you finish in the top 10
How McLaren can win F1 Constructors' Championship at Abu Dhabi GP
A maximum of 44 points can be scored in Abu Dhabi if a team has a one-two and takes the bonus point for fastest lap of the race.
The maths for McLaren are simple. If Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri score 24 points, or more, McLaren will be champions. If Ferrari do not win the race, McLaren only need to score 13 points.
Should both McLaren cars finish in the top four of the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, that would guarantee the title. A victory for either car would also ensure the championship.
Of course, if Ferrari are not able to get cars on the podium, it will make McLaren's task a lot easier and they could get away with a disappointing race themselves.
"What I can say is that we are in a position of going into the final race leading the championship because our two drivers have done an amazing job and this has delivered the points that when summed give us the leadership from the constructors' point of view," McLaren team principal Andrea Stella said.
"Lando has been the main contributor to put McLaren in this condition. While we look at what we can do better - and certainly pain and disappointment are the prevailing feelings on Lando's side - at the same time we can only be thankful to what Lando has done for the team.
"We are sure that this will give him even more determination to have a strong race in Abu Dhabi and complete the job that it was not possible to complete in Qatar."
How Ferrari can win F1 Constructors' Championship at Abu Dhabi GP
Ferrari must score at least 22 points to stand a chance of winning the title. Realistically, Charles Leclerc or Carlos Sainz need to win the race, with the other driver being on the podium, to put some serious pressure on McLaren.
Given McLaren's 21-point lead, Ferrari need to outscore the Woking-based team by 21 points, if they win the race, or 22 points if they do not.
Only once all season have Ferrari been able to do that, at the United States Grand Prix, where they took a one-two, with the McLarens in fourth and fifth.
"I would prefer to be 21 points ahead than 21 points behind!" said Ferrari team principal Frederic Vasseur.
"But let's see, I think on paper that the next one is probably a bit better for us also. Let's fight until the last corner of the last lap.
"It's not a matter of pressure, it's a matter of [needing] to do a good job and to be quick and then we'll see. We were able to do [a] one-two some weekends during the season, [we will] try to do better than this.
"But it's true that even if [we] do a one-two they can be champions, but first the most important thing is to be focused on ourselves, not to start to think about what the others are doing and so [on] because then you are losing a little bit the pace of the weekend."
What happens if they are level on points?
If McLaren and Ferrari are tied on points, the most wins in 2024 would decide the title.
Currently, both teams are on five victories. If McLaren win the race, they are champions regardless. However, there is a scenario Ferrari can outscore McLaren by 21 points, which is the gap between the teams, and win the race, therefore win the Constructors' Championship on countback.
If Ferrari outscore McLaren by 21 points but do not win the race, McLaren would be champions as they have more second places.
Who will have the upper hand in Abu Dhabi?
As expected, Las Vegas favoured Ferrari and Qatar suited McLaren. As for Abu Dhabi, it should be very close as the track has a mixture of corners.
There are no super-high-speed corners though, which McLaren enjoy, but the final sector is all about slow and medium speed turns.
Ferrari have generally had the fastest car in a straight line, which will be helpful at the Yas Marina Circuit thanks to its two long consecutive straights, separated by a chicane.
It will likely come down to which team can optimise their set-up and get the tyres into the right operating window, with pressure on the four drivers to deliver when it matters most. Given the close margins, that should help McLaren.
Max Verstappen has won the last four Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, all from pole position, so Red Bull could be a factor and Mercedes will be up there too on Lewis Hamilton's final weekend with the team.
What else is left to play for at the Abu Dhabi GP?
Further down the Constructors' Championship, Alpine are only five points ahead of Haas in the battle for sixth.
For Haas, they are on course to have one of their best campaigns in F1 since joining the sport in 2016. In 2018, they finished fifth but Haas have been eighth or lower in every other season.
In the Drivers' Championship, Norris is only eight points ahead of Leclerc in the fight for the runners-up spot behind world champion Verstappen.
All eyes will be on the Constructors' Championship, though, and how two of F1's most historic and famous teams can deal with the pressure of a title decider.
Sky Sports F1's live Abu Dhabi GP schedule
Thursday December 5
11am: Drivers' Press Conference
Friday December 6
5.45am: F1 Academy Practice
7am: F2 Practice
9am: Abu Dhabi GP Practice One (session starts at 9.30am)*
10.55am: F2 Qualifying
12.45pm: Abu Dhabi GP Practice Two (session starts at 1pm)*
2.30pm: F1 Academy Qualifying*
3.15pm: The F1 Show*
Saturday December 7
8.10am: F1 Academy Race One
10.15am: Abu Dhabi GP Practice Three (session starts at 10.30am)
12.10pm: F2 Sprint Race
1.15pm: Abu Dhabi GP Qualifying build-up
2pm: ABU DHABI GP QUALIFYING*
4pm: F1 Academy: Race Two
5pm: Ted's Qualifying Notebook
Sunday December 8
7.10am: F1 Academy Race Three
9.20am: F2 Feature Race
11.30am: Grand Prix Sunday: Abu Dhabi GP build-up
1pm: The ABU DHABI GRAND PRIX
3pm: Chequered Flag: Abu Dhabi GP reaction
4pm: Ted's Notebook
*also live on Sky Sports Main Event
Watch the final race of the 2024 Formula 1 season - the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix - live on Sky Sports F1, with Sunday's race at 1pm. Get Sky Sports F1 or stream with NOW
(c) Sky Sports 2024: Abu Dhabi GP: Permutations for McLaren and Ferrari as they bid to win Constructors' Championship at final race of 2024 F1 season
